Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Hawai'i Free Press

Current Articles | Archives

Saturday, April 18, 2020
Model Shows Hawaii Could Ease Social Distancing in Early May
By Court House News @ 5:16 AM :: 3157 Views :: COVID-19

Model Shows Some States Could Ease Social Distancing Soon

Most states could relax restrictions by June 1, provided they are able to maintain containment strategies.

by Tim Ryan, Court House News, April 17, 2020

WASHINGTON (CN) — A handful of states may be able to relax some social-distancing measures as early as the beginning of May, according to a new state-by-state analysis from an influential model that projects deaths from Covid-19.

In a new update released on Friday, the Institute for Health and Metrics Evaluation model makes projections for when each state can safely begin relaxing social-distancing guidelines, provided they maintain “robust containment strategies” like broad scale testing, contact tracing and limiting mass gatherings.

Based on the newly released state-level data, the model suggests Vermont, West Virginia, Montana and Hawaii could start pulling back on some restrictions as early as May 4, while Iowa, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Utah, Arkansas and Oklahoma may not be able to relax social distancing until the end of June or early July.

“Each state is different,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said in a statement. “Each state has a different public health system and different capabilities. This is not a ‘one decision fits all’ situation.'”

The new modeling comes a day after the White House released new guidance for states to follow when easing up on coronavirus-driven restrictions. The White House has relied upon the IHME model when crafting its pandemic response strategy.

To predict the dates when opening back up might be safe, the IHME model forecasts when the number of infections in a state falls below one for every 1 million people. Overall, the model projects a new batch of states able to open each week from May 4 until June 29, with most states being able to relax social-distancing measures by June 1, provided they are able to stand up the containment strategies the model mentions.

The four states singled out in the update as the earliest candidates for reopening are among those least-hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic, which has now claimed more than 34,000 lives in the United States as of Friday evening. The model projects 17 people will die in Montana by August 4, while Vermont would be the hardest-hit among the four with 40 projected deaths.

All of the states have hit their projected peaks, with the model projecting Friday to be Hawaii’s highest single-day death toll.

Nationwide, the model predicts just more than 60,000 people will die from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, by the beginning of August. The range on the prediction remains relatively large, as it allows for as many as 140,000 people dying over that time span.

The model forecasts that daily U.S. deaths peaked on Wednesday, when 2,481 people died.

The overall death projection is a downward revision from the April 13 update, which the IHME said came partly in response to new cellphone data that suggests people began limiting their movements earlier than initially predicted, particularly in southern states.

---30---

LINK: Tracking Model Hawaii

KHON: Tracking model says Hawaii can loosen restrictions by May 4

Influential--Why?  Zero Deaths from COVID on So-Called Experts 'Peak' Day

Links

TEXT "follow HawaiiFreePress" to 40404

Register to Vote

2aHawaii

808 Silent Majority

Aloha Pregnancy Care Center

AntiPlanner

Antonio Gramsci Reading List

A Place for Women in Waipio

Ballotpedia Hawaii

Broken Trust

Build More Hawaiian Homes Working Group

Christian Homeschoolers of Hawaii

Cliff Slater's Second Opinion

DVids Hawaii

FIRE

Fix Oahu!

Frontline: The Fixers

Genetic Literacy Project

Grassroot Institute

Habele.org

Hawaii Aquarium Fish Report

Hawaii Aviation Preservation Society

Hawaii Catholic TV

Hawaii Christian Coalition

Hawaii Cigar Association

Hawaii ConCon Info

Hawaii Debt Clock

Hawaii Defense Foundation

Hawaii Family Forum

Hawaii Farmers and Ranchers United

Hawaii Farmer's Daughter

Hawaii Federalist Society

Hawaii Federation of Republican Women

Hawaii History Blog

Hawaii Homeschool Association

Hawaii Jihadi Trial

Hawaii Legal News

Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance

Hawaii Matters

Hawaii's Partnership for Appropriate & Compassionate Care

Hawaii Public Charter School Network

Hawaii Rifle Association

Hawaii Shippers Council

Hawaii Smokers Alliance

Hawaii State Data Lab

Hawaii Together

HIEC.Coop

HiFiCo

Hiram Fong Papers

Homeschool Legal Defense Hawaii

Honolulu Moms for Liberty

Honolulu Navy League

Honolulu Traffic

House Minority Blog

Imua TMT

Inouye-Kwock, NYT 1992

Inside the Nature Conservancy

Inverse Condemnation

Investigative Project on Terrorism

July 4 in Hawaii

Kakaako Cares

Keep Hawaii's Heroes

Land and Power in Hawaii

Legislative Committee Analysis Tool

Lessons in Firearm Education

Lingle Years

Managed Care Matters -- Hawaii

Malama Pregnancy Center of Maui

MentalIllnessPolicy.org

Military Home Educators' Network Oahu

Missile Defense Advocacy

MIS Veterans Hawaii

NAMI Hawaii

Natatorium.org

National Christian Foundation Hawaii

National Parents Org Hawaii

NFIB Hawaii News

No GMO Means No Aloha

Not Dead Yet, Hawaii

NRA-ILA Hawaii

Oahu Alternative Transport

Obookiah

OHA Lies

Opt Out Today

OurFutureHawaii.com

Patients Rights Council Hawaii

PEACE Hawaii

People vs Machine

Practical Policy Institute of Hawaii

Pritchett Cartoons

Pro-GMO Hawaii

P.U.E.O.

RailRipoff.com

Rental by Owner Awareness Assn

ReRoute the Rail

Research Institute for Hawaii USA

Rick Hamada Show

RJ Rummel

Robotics Organizing Committee

School Choice in Hawaii

SenatorFong.com

Sink the Jones Act

Statehood for Guam

Talking Tax

Tax Foundation of Hawaii

The Real Hanabusa

Time Out Honolulu

Trustee Akina KWO Columns

UCC Truths

US Tax Foundation Hawaii Info

VAREP Honolulu

Waagey.org

West Maui Taxpayers Association

What Natalie Thinks

Whole Life Hawaii

Yes2TMT