Thursday, January 21, 2021
Hawai'i Free Press

Current Articles | Archives

Friday, September 27, 2013
New Global Warming Report: Less Scary, More Politics
By NCPA @ 11:36 PM :: 3918 Views :: Energy, Environment

New Global Warming Report: Less Scary, More Politics

By Sterling Burnett NCPA September 27, 2013

The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change officially released the executive summary of its fifth climate change report today.  The takeaway headline seems to be:  Scientists are 95 percent certain that humans are responsible for at least half the earth’s warming over the past 50 years.

Putting that in perspective, since the earth has warmed about 1.3 degrees over the past 150 years, with just over half of that warming coming since 1979, that means that scientists are 95 percent certain that humans are responsible for 25 to 30 percent of the earth’s recent temperature increase.  If they are correct, then humans are hardly driving the recent temperature rise but rather are responsible for a small share of a modest temperature increase.  Put this way, the IPCC’s report hardly merits the headlines it’s getting.

The report acknowledges, finally, that the temperature has plateaued for 16 years now, which the scientists admit they can’t explain.  However, as with past reports, due to political pressure, scientists removed all mention of the fact that all the computer models upon which the IPCC relies upon to make its predictions missed the continuing lull in the temperature rise and that on average the models have overestimated  the amount of warming that the planet should have experienced by double what has actually occurred.

Thus even the small portion of the present measured warming that scientists with 95 percent confidence believe is due to human activities is based on models that demonstrably overstate global warming by more than double, models that get past and present temperatures wrong by more than a degree.  How much faith should legislators or the average citizen place in such predictions.

And if, as skeptics have long argued, and the IPCC is now grudgingly admitting may be true, the earths’ temperature is less sensitive to CO2 levels than previously predicted shouldn’t the projections of future catastrophes from a further modest warming also be moderated considerably.  Indeed, most of the harms predicted based on much higher temperatures are very unlikely to occur because they were the result of the higher temperature ranges.

I had a piece in Investor’s Business Daily today that runs through some of the things we do know – and what we do know is hardly alarming. For instance:

  • Despite IPCC prophecies of more — and more intense — hurricanes, the actual number and intensity of hurricanes has declined on average for seven years and has never strayed beyond the natural range of variability.
  • Sea levels are rising, yes — as they have consistently done since the end of the last ice age. But at just 2/16 of an inch per year, sea levels are rising at a far slower rate now than they have on average for the past 17,000 years.
  • Weather-related deaths are lower now than at any time in history, with fewer than 19,000 per year. Compared to 485,000 annual weather-related deaths in the 1920s or 74,000 weather-related deaths in the 1970s (when the next ice age was the weather scare du jour), this is a tremendous, felicitous decline.

Rather than inspiring fear, these facts should inform us to keep our collective head.  We’ve got time to figure out what is going on and what our response should be.

---30---

Links

TEXT "follow HawaiiFreePress" to 40404

Register to Vote

2aHawaii

808 Silent Majority

ACA Signups Hawaii

ALEC

Alliance Defending Freedom

Aloha Pregnancy Care Center

American Council of Trustees and Alumni

AntiPlanner

Antonio Gramsci Reading List

A Place for Women in Waipio

Astronomy Hawaii

Ballotpedia Hawaii

Better Hawaii

Blaisdell Memorial Project

Broken Trust

Build More Hawaiian Homes Working Group

ChinaTownWatch.com

Christian Homeschoolers of Hawaii

Cliff Slater's Second Opinion

Coffee Break

DeedySupport.com

DVids Hawaii

E Hana Kakou Kelii Akina

FIRE

Fix Oahu!

Follow the Money Hawaii

Frank in Hawaii

Front Page Magazine

Frontline: The Fixers

Genetic Literacy Project

Grassroot Institute

Habele.org

Hawaii Aquarium Fish Report

Hawaii Aviation Preservation Society

Hawaii Catholic TV

Hawaii Christian Coalition

Hawaii Cigar Association

Hawaii Coalition Against Legalized Gambling

Hawaii ConCon Info

Hawaii Credit Union Watch

Hawaii Crop Improvement Association

Hawaii Debt Clock

Hawaii Defense Foundation

Hawaii Family Advocates

Hawaii Family Forum

Hawaii Farmers and Ranchers United

Hawaii Farmer's Daughter

Hawaii Federalist Society

Hawaii Federation of Republican Women

Hawaii Future Project

Hawaii Gathering of Eagles

Hawaii History Blog

Hawaii Homeschool Association

Hawaii Jihadi Trial

Hawaii March for Life

Hawaii's Partnership for Appropriate & Compassionate Care

Hawaii Public Charter School Network

Hawaii Rifle Association

Hawaii Shippers Council

Hawaii Smokers Alliance

Hawaii State Data Lab

Hawaii Together

Heritage Foundation

HIEC.Coop

HiFiCo

Hiram Fong Papers

Homeschool Legal Defense Hawaii

Honolulu Navy League

Honolulu Traffic

House Minority Blog

I Vote Hawaii

If Hawaii News

Imua TMT

Inouye-Kwock, NYT 1992

Inside the Nature Conservancy

Inverse Condemnation

Investigative Project on Terrorism

Iowa Meets Maui

Jackson v Abercrombie

Jihad Watch

July 4 in Hawaii

Kahle v New Hope

Kakaako Cares

Kau TEA Party

Kauai Co GOP

Keep Hawaii's Heroes

KeyWiki

Land and Power in Hawaii

Legislative Committee Analysis Tool

Lessons in Firearm Education

Lingle Years

Malulani Foundation

Managed Care Matters -- Hawaii

Malama Pregnancy Center of Maui

Mauna Kea Recreational Users Group

MentalIllnessPolicy.org

Middle East Forum--The Legal Project

Mililani Conservatives for Change

Military Home Educators' Network Oahu

Missile Defense Advocacy

MIS Veterans Hawaii

Muslim Brotherhood in America

NAMI Hawaii

NARTH

Natatorium.org

National Christian Foundation Hawaii

National Parents Org Hawaii

National Wind Watch

New Hawaiian

New Zeal

NFIB Hawaii News

No GMO Means No Aloha

Northwest Economic Policy Seminar

Not Dead Yet, Hawaii

Now What I Really Think

NRA-ILA Hawaii

Oahu Alternative Transport

ObamaCare Abortion Hawaii

Obookiah

OHA Lies

Opt Out Today

OurFutureHawaii.com

Pacific Aviation Museum

Patients Rights Council Hawaii

PEACE Hawaii

People vs Machine

Pritchett Cartoons

Pro-GMO Hawaii

P.U.E.O.

RailRipoff.com

Rental by Owner Awareness Assn

Republican Party -- Hawaii State

Research Institute for Hawaii USA

Rick Hamada Show

RJ Rummel

Robotics Organizing Committee

Save Dillingham Airfield

School Choice in Hawaii

SenatorFong.com

Sink the Jones Act

Statehood for Guam

Tax Foundation of Hawaii

The Real Hanabusa

Time Out Honolulu

Trustee Akina KWO Columns

UCC Truths

US Tax Foundation Hawaii Info

VAREP Honolulu

Waagey.org

West Maui Taxpayers Association

What Natalie Thinks

Whole Life Hawaii

Yes2TMT