Wednesday, February 1, 2023
Hawai'i Free Press

Current Articles | Archives

Friday, October 16, 2020
UHERO: Pandemic upends economic analysis
By UHERO @ 6:16 PM :: 2020 Views :: Economy, COVID-19

Pandemic upends economic analysis, UHERO seeks more data sources

UH News, October 16, 2020

The value of goods and services produced in Hawaiʻi or gross domestic product (GDP) declined at a 42% annual rate in the second quarter of 2020, and, in December, data will be released on how much of a rebound occurred in the summer.

However, according to a new University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO) article, economists need to analyze more than just Hawaiʻi’s real GDP to capture the current economic situation. That’s because the state GDP data is released with a three-month lag and undergoes many revisions after its release. Experts said with the quickly changing economic landscape caused by COVID-19, most traditional data sources are not timely enough.

Carl Bonham, UHERO executive director and professor of economics and Peter Fuleky, UHERO research economist and associate professor of economics, illustrated that in March and April 2020 when UHERO was trying to calculate potential job losses in the state, preliminary data for job counts by industry for February were available, but no data existed for March or April. UHERO relied on data on the number of initial unemployment claims and data from surveys conducted with the Chamber of Commerce Hawaii to issue projections. But the incoming data led to an overestimate of the number of lost jobs in April. This example exposes discrepancies that caution against relying too much on any individual data series.

In addition to using data released by government agencies, UHERO began incorporating data from private sources into its forecasts. While private data frequently comes in a relatively raw form with missing data points, it is typically not revised. In contrast to carefully designed public surveys, there is no guarantee that later data points are compatible with previous ones. However, if the private data is available at a high frequency and with a short release lag, the benefit of timely information may offset the drawbacks. For example, the weekly UHERO Economic Pulse Index uses data collected by government agencies and from private sources to assess the current economic landscape.

The UHERO Economic Pulse Index is an experimental measure of economic conditions. It summarizes information from a variety of indicators, whose number may change as more data sources become available. Experts will analyze the index’s effectiveness in predicting the overall state economy when the state GDP for the third quarter is released in December 2020.

UHERO is housed in the College of Social Sciences.

Related: Estimating economic conditions during the COVID-19 crisis


TEXT "follow HawaiiFreePress" to 40404

Register to Vote


808 Silent Majority

ACA Signups Hawaii

Alliance Defending Freedom

Aloha Pregnancy Care Center

American Council of Trustees and Alumni


Antonio Gramsci Reading List

A Place for Women in Waipio

Astronomy Hawaii

Back da Blue Hawaii

Ballotpedia Hawaii

Better Hawaii

Broken Trust

Build More Hawaiian Homes Working Group

Christian Homeschoolers of Hawaii

Cliff Slater's Second Opinion

DVids Hawaii


Fix Oahu!

Frontline: The Fixers

Genetic Literacy Project

Grassroot Institute

Hawaii Aquarium Fish Report

Hawaii Aviation Preservation Society

Hawaii Catholic TV

Hawaii Christian Coalition

Hawaii Cigar Association

Hawaii Coalition Against Legalized Gambling

Hawaii ConCon Info

Hawaii Credit Union Watch

Hawaii Crop Improvement Association

Hawaii Debt Clock

Hawaii Defense Foundation

Hawaii Family Forum

Hawaii Farmers and Ranchers United

Hawaii Farmer's Daughter

Hawaii Federalist Society

Hawaii Federation of Republican Women

Hawaii Future Project

Hawaii Gathering of Eagles

Hawaii History Blog

Hawaii Homeschool Association

Hawaii Jihadi Trial

Hawaii Legal News

Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance

Hawaii Matters

Hawaii's Partnership for Appropriate & Compassionate Care

Hawaii Public Charter School Network

Hawaii Rifle Association

Hawaii Shippers Council

Hawaii Smokers Alliance

Hawaii State Data Lab

Hawaii Together



Hiram Fong Papers

Homeschool Legal Defense Hawaii

Honolulu Navy League

Honolulu Traffic

House Minority Blog

Imua TMT

Inouye-Kwock, NYT 1992

Inside the Nature Conservancy

Inverse Condemnation

Investigative Project on Terrorism

July 4 in Hawaii

Kakaako Cares

Keep Hawaii's Heroes

Land and Power in Hawaii

Legislative Committee Analysis Tool

Lessons in Firearm Education

Lingle Years

Malulani Foundation

Managed Care Matters -- Hawaii

Malama Pregnancy Center of Maui

Military Home Educators' Network Oahu

Missile Defense Advocacy

MIS Veterans Hawaii

NAMI Hawaii

National Christian Foundation Hawaii

National Parents Org Hawaii

NFIB Hawaii News

No GMO Means No Aloha

Not Dead Yet, Hawaii

NRA-ILA Hawaii

Oahu Alternative Transport


OHA Lies

Opt Out Today

Patients Rights Council Hawaii

PEACE Hawaii

People vs Machine

Pritchett Cartoons

Pro-GMO Hawaii


Rental by Owner Awareness Assn

ReRoute the Rail

Research Institute for Hawaii USA

Rick Hamada Show

RJ Rummel

Robotics Organizing Committee

Save Dillingham Airfield

School Choice in Hawaii

Sink the Jones Act

Statehood for Guam

Talking Tax

Tax Foundation of Hawaii

The Real Hanabusa

Time Out Honolulu

Trustee Akina KWO Columns

UCC Truths

US Tax Foundation Hawaii Info

VAREP Honolulu

West Maui Taxpayers Association

What Natalie Thinks

Whole Life Hawaii