Mark Twain once said that there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Were he alive today, he likely would have included polls in that list.
With all due respect to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, who endorsed our opponent on Saturday, their polling has proven to be less than accurate. Just two weeks before the Primary Election in August, the Star-Advertiser predicted that Tulsi Gabbard would lose by ten points to Mufi Hannemann. She won by 20 points.
As a valued member of the campaign team, we'll share with you that, as of Friday, our internal polling has us slightly ahead. The difference in polling is entirely attributable to the number of Democrats surveyed. The Star Advertiser polled 60% of Democrats in their sample; while our pollster believes that the number of Democrats in our congressional district is closer to 45% of the electorate. The 45% figure is based on exit polling from the last presidential election in 2008. We also saw 45% Democrats in our 2010 polling, which accurately predicted the results of the 2010 election.
Ultimately, however, what matters isn't what the Star Advertiser says or even what our own polling shows. The only "poll" that matters is the one taken on Election Day.
We're 9 days away. We've worked too hard to quit now. Please don't let the Star Advertiser decide this race -- let's work hard and continue to fight. We can do this, but we need every single one of you fighting with us in these final days of the campaign.
It's too important for our state and nation for us to quit now.
P.S. - Mahalo again for your support!