Which States Are at Highest Risk for Recession?
by Tendayi Kapfidze, Lending Tree, September 10th, 2019 (excerpts)
The states that show the highest probability for weak economic fundamentals — and are thus at a higher risk of recession — are Michigan, Hawaii and Montana. At 58.86%, the chance that Michigan will have weak economic fundamentals in the fourth quarter is the highest in the nation. In fact, Michigan’s state coincident index’s growth rate was negative in July (the last month available at the time of this piece’s writing), all but confirming that its economy is on shaky grounds. Despite ranking second and third respectively, Hawaii and Montana seem to be in better shape than Michigan. The growth rates for the states’ coincident indexes were both positive in July, and the likelihood of weak economic fundamentals in both states’ near futures is below 50%….
10 states with the highest risk for recession…
No. 2: Hawaii
- Probability of weak economic fundamentals in Q4 2019: 30.53%
- State coincident index growth rate in July 2019: 0.52%
- Start of last recession: Q4 2007
- End of last recession: Q4 2009...
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