Thursday, July 16, 2020
Hawai'i Free Press

Current Articles | Archives

Thursday, June 18, 2020
UHERO: Estimating the Need for Rental Assistance in Hawaii
By UHERO @ 3:02 PM :: 711 Views :: Hawaii State Government, Labor, COVID-19

Estimating the Need for Rental Assistance in Hawaii

by Philip ME Garboden and Isabelle Picciotto, UHERO, June 17, 2020 (excerpt)

Renters in Hawaii are at significant risk due to the economic downturn. Roughly 40% of all households in Hawaii rent their homes. They have significantly lower income than homeowners, with a median household income of $57,000 compared with $100,000 for homeowners. Their housing tenure is by nature less secure and their assets more limited. Federal protections for homeowners are far from perfect, but they are certainly more robust than those protecting renters, the majority of the responsibility for which has been pushed to states and counties.

Although data on the current housing situation is far from complete, it appears that the augmented unemployment payments (the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation, FPUC) have done a fairly good job  preventing the worst from happening so far. But that program is set to expire August 1. Unemployed workers will still be eligible for standard Unemployment Insurance (UI) but the payments will drop substantially – to roughly 60% of the individual’s previous income. Thousands of renters will then likely face unsustainable housing burdens.

Here we assess the additional burden renters will face in just the second half of 2020 – after the expiration of FPUC but before the deadline for CARES expenditures on January 1st. Our forecasts suggest that many families may struggle well beyond this date; we have chosen this abridged timeline because it’s most relevant to the immediate policy decisions currently being debated.

Our focus is the “COVID rent deficit” – the amount of rent subsidy that would be required to return all unemployed renters to the rent burden they experienced before the economic shutdown. We estimate this deficit under several policy scenarios, ranging from complete termination of the FPUC program to scenarios involving some extension of the FPUC or a state version of augmented UI benefits.

Two comments on our choice of measure: First, we recognize that a housing crisis existed before COVID, with many families homeless, doubled-up, or unsustainably burdened. To return families to baseline is simply a metric of the impact of the COVID recession, not an estimate of what it would take to fund a robust housing safety net. Second, the rent deficit metric does not distinguish between those households for whom the increased housing burden is manageable versus those whose burden places them a greatest risk for adverse outcomes related to the crisis. 

It is also important to note that we are only estimating the amount of rent subsidy necessary to return households to baseline housing burdens. Food, transportation, healthcare, and education are not considered in this analysis. Under all of our scenarios, almost all households hit by unemployment will have fewer resources overall.

THE CHALLENGE

Given data limitations, job losses can not be cleanly connected to household income. We know how many people have lost their jobs, but we don’t have good data on what types of households those families lived in and what their rents are. Many households in Hawaii have multiple wage earners including spouses and adult children. It is hard to know, then, precisely how estimated job losses during the recession will impact housing burdens.

Consider the following examples:

1. A single mother earns $30,000 per year working in retail at the airport ($2,500 per month). She has two children and so pays $1,500 in rent for a small two-bedroom apartment. It’s a stretch under normal times, as 60% of her income goes to rent. To make matters worse, her job disappeared during the shutdown and doesn’t seem to be coming back any time soon. 

While she was receiving the FPUC augmented unemployment insurance, her income actually increased to $3,900. Once it ends though, her UI benefits will drop to $1,500, meaning her rent will take up all of her income.

How much of a rent subsidy would be required to put her back at her pre-crisis rent burden? Since she’s now making $1,500 from UI, a 60% burden would mean she could pay $900 in rent ($1,500 * .6 = $900). To get there, she’d need a $600 subsidy each month ($1,500 – $600 = $900). 

She’ll still have less left over for other expenses ($600 per month, compared to $1000 before she lost her job), but she should be able to keep her housing.

2. A middle aged couple lives with their adult son. The wife earns $55,000 per year as floor manager at a hotel, and the husband makes $30,000 part-time in construction. The son is in school, but has a part-time job that brings in $10,000 to the household. Altogether, the family earns $95,000 a year or $7,900 a month. They rent a single-family house for $3,000 which costs them 38% of their income – not bad by Hawaii standards. When COVID hit, the son and father kept working, but the mother lost her job. The augmented unemployment benefits more or less kept the household even in terms of income, but when FPUC expires they’ll lose 40% of the primary breadwinner’s salary, dropping their monthly household income from $7,900 to $5,750 a month. Their rent burden will increase to 52%.

While the family is in a better position than some, they’ll need a roughly $800 per month rent subsidy to get back to their pre-crisis housing burden. Again, their non-housing income will decline (in this case by nearly $1,500), but their housing will remain manageable.

These are just two examples among thousands, but they’re presented to help understand what our outcome variable, the COVID Rent Deficit, means. The sum total of all these calculations gets us to our final result….

read … Estimating the Need for Rental Assistance in Hawaii

Links

TEXT "follow HawaiiFreePress" to 40404

Register to Vote

2aHawaii

808 Silent Majority

808 State Update AM940

ABCDEFG Blog

ACA Signups Hawaii

ACCE

ALEC

Alliance Defending Freedom

Aloha Life Advocates

Aloha Pregnancy Care Center

American Council of Trustees and Alumni

American Mothers of Hawaii

AMVETS-Hawaii

AntiPlanner

Antonio Gramsci Reading List

A Place for Women in Waipio

Astronomy Hawaii

Audit The Rail

Ballotpedia Hawaii

Better Hawaii 

Blaisdell Memorial Project

Broken Trust 

Build More Hawaiian Homes Working Group

CAFR Hawaii

Castaway Conservative

Children's Alliance Hawaii

Children's Rights Institute

ChinaTownWatch.com

Christian Homeschoolers of Hawaii

Citizens for Recall

Cliff Slater's Second Opinion

Coffee Break

CSIS Pacific Forum

DAR Hawaii

DeedySupport.com

DVids Hawaii

E Hana Kakou Kelii Akina

E Māua Ola i Moku o Keawe

Farmers For Choice Hawaii

FIRE

Fix Oahu!

Follow the Money Hawaii

Frank in Hawaii

Front Page Magazine

Frontline: The Fixers

Genetic Literacy Project

Get Off Your Butts!

God, Freedom, America

Grassroot Institute

Habele.org

Hawaii Aganst Assisted Suicide

Hawaii Aquarium Fish Report

Hawaii Aviation Preservation Society

Hawaii Catholic TV

Hawaii Christian Coalition

Hawaii Cigar Association

Hawaii Coalition Against Legalized Gambling

Hawaii ConCon Info

Hawaii Credit Union Watch

Hawaii Crime Victims' Rights

Hawaii Crop Improvement Association

Hawaii Debt Clock

Hawaii Defending Marriage

Hawaii Defense Foundation

Hawaii Family Advocates

Hawaii Family Forum

Hawaii Farmers and Ranchers United

Hawaii Farmer's Daughter

Hawaii Federalist Society

Hawaii Federation of Republican Women

Hawaii Firearm Community

Hawaii Fishermen's Alliance

Hawaii Future Project

Hawaii Gathering of Eagles

Hawaii History Blog

Hawaii Homeschool Association

Hawaii Jihadi Trial

Hawaii March for Life

Hawaii Meth Project

Hawaii's Partnership for Appropriate & Compassionate Care

Hawaii Public Charter School Network

Hawaii Rifle Association

Hawaii Right to Life -- Big Island

Hawaii Right to Life -- Oahu

Hawaii Shield Law Coalition

Hawaii Shippers Council

Hawaii Smokers Alliance

Hawaii State Data Lab

Hawaii Together

Heritage Foundation

HI Coalition Against Legalized Gambling

HIEC.Coop 

HiFiCo

Hiram Fong Papers

Homeschool Legal Defense Hawaii

Honolulu Homeless Crisis

Honolulu Navy League

Honolulu Traffic

Horns of Jericho Blog

House Minority Blog

House Republican Caucus YouTube

HPACC

Hump Day Report

I Vote Hawaii

If Hawaii News

Imua TMT

Inouye-Kwock, NYT 1992

Inside the Nature Conservancy

Inverse Condemnation

Investigative Project on Terrorism

Iowa Meets Maui

Jackson v Abercrombie

Jihad Watch

July 4 in Hawaii

Kahle v New Hope

Kakaako Cares

Kau TEA Party

Kauai Co GOP

Keep Hawaii's Heroes

KeyWiki

Land and Power in Hawaii

Legislative Committee Analysis Tool

Lessons in Firearm Education

Lingle Years

Malulani Foundation

Managed Care Matters -- Hawaii

Malama Pregnancy Center of Maui

Mauna Kea Recreational Users Group

MentalIllnessPolicy.org

Middle East Forum--The Legal Project

Mililani Conservatives for Change

Military Home Educators' Network Oahu

Missile Defense Advocacy

MIS Veterans Hawaii

Muslim Brotherhood in America

NAMI Hawaii

NARTH

Natatorium.org

National Christian Foundation Hawaii

National Parents Org Hawaii

National Wind Watch

New Hawaiian

New Zeal

NFIB Hawaii News

No GMO Means No Aloha

Northwest Economic Policy Seminar

Not Dead Yet, Hawaii

Now What I Really Think

NRA-ILA Hawaii

Oahu Alternative Transport

ObamaCare Abortion Hawaii

Obookiah

OHA Lies

Opt Out Today

OurFutureHawaii.com

Pacific Aviation Museum

Patients Rights Council Hawaii

PEACE Hawaii

People vs Machine

Pritchett Cartoons 

Pro-GMO Hawaii

P.U.E.O.

RailRipoff.com

Rental by Owner Awareness Assn

Republican Party -- Hawaii State

Research Institute for Hawaii USA

Rick Hamada Show

RJ Rummel

Robotics Organizing Committee

Save Dillingham Airfield

School Choice in Hawaii

SenatorFong.com

SIFE Remington

SIFE W. Oahu 

Sink the Jones Act

Smart About Marijuana--Hawaii

St Marianne Cope

State Budget Solutions Hawaii

State Policy Network

Statehood for Guam

Tax Foundation of Hawaii

The Harriet Tubman Agenda

The Long War Journal

The Real Hanabusa

Time Out Honolulu

Trustee Akina KWO Columns

Truth About Trade & Technology - Hawaii

UCC Truths

Union Members Know Your Rights

US Tax Foundation Hawaii Info

Valor in the Pacific

VAREP Honolulu

Waagey.org

West Maui Taxpayers Association

What Natalie Thinks

Whole Life Hawaii

Yes2TMT