Thursday, March 28, 2024
Hawai'i Free Press

Current Articles | Archives

Friday, December 3, 2010
UHERO assesses first year of Obama Economy
By News Release @ 4:47 PM :: 9394 Views :: Energy, Environment, National News, Ethics, World News, Family

From http://www.uhero.hawaii.edu/news/view/87

Global economic recovery is proceeding, but in an uneven fashion. The developing Asian countries that were the first to show signs of life last year continue to expand at a healthy pace, driven by rebounding trade but also by strong domestic demand. Growth in the developed world remains decidedly subpar and insufficient to bring about a timely reduction in unemployment. With the pace of U.S. growth weakening in recent months and fiscal stimulus winding down, prospects are for slower growth in much of the world in 2011. True to form, recovery from the recent financial crisis is shaping up to be a long slog.

• The world economy contracted in 2009 for the first time since the 1930s. This year, growth has staged a moderate rebound, but will ease off somewhat in 2011. Overall, the global recovery has been anemic by historical standards.

• In the U.S., consumer spending has been improving slowly, but a restrained business outlook and conservative bank lending are holding back investment. There has been a slowing in overall activity in recent months, which will hold 2011 growth below this year’s level. The Fed has rolled out additional expansionary monetary policy measures, which will provide support over the coming year as the impetus from fiscal programs wanes.

• Japan had seen a fairly steady recovery, with rebounding exports and industrial production. However, an abrupt downturn in business expectations for the remainder of the year will put a serious damper on investment. The surging yen is also choking off an incipient export rebound. Weakening conditions in Japan and a strengthening yen have renewed deflationary concerns. Growth in 2011 will be significantly lower than in the current year.

• European recovery has been challenged by the debt crisis that erupted in the spring of this year. Higher borrowing costs and fear of market attacks are now forcing a significant fiscal tightening in Europe, which promises to retard growth in coming years. The best performer has been Germany, which has benefited from a strong rebound in exports. Overall, prospects are for roughly the same rate of European growth in 2011 as in 2010, with modest strengthening thereafter.

• The East Asian region has seen the globe’s strongest growth in 2010, providing important support for the overall world economy. Trade volumes have bounced back strongly, and domestic private demand has been robust. South Asia has also performed well, with India seeing strong growth driven by robust fixed investment and consumer spending.

• China has been the focus of Asian growth, but the country will slow in 2011, following government measures to reign in credit growth. China’s rebounding demand for imports has led to strong export-led recoveries in the many East Asian economies. Currency appreciation and slower growth in the U.S. and Europe will hold East Asian growth to somewhat lower levels in 2011.

• The growth picture in other parts of the developing world is mixed. In Latin America, growth has been strong in large parts of South America but weaker in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, with their heavier dependence on the relatively weak U.S. economy. Countries of the former Soviet Block suffered a very severe recession and are struggling to get back on their feet. Africa as a region has fared well this year, propelled by commodity price recovery and strong demand from emerging markets.

• The global recovery enters its third year in 2011, but macro policy and financial market conditions continue to be the central challenge. The emerging pattern of fiscal consolidation will increasingly act as a brake on expansion. Persistent monetary expansion by the U.S. is contributing to dollar weakness and foreign currency strength, threatening nascent recoveries in Europe, Asia and Latin America. What we need are further gains in consumer spending and especially a revival of investment, so that private demand can take over from public support….

…FULL TEXT: http://www.uhero.hawaii.edu/assets/10Q4GlobalEconomicForecast-Public.pdf

Links

TEXT "follow HawaiiFreePress" to 40404

Register to Vote

2aHawaii

808 Silent Majority

Aloha Pregnancy Care Center

AntiPlanner

Antonio Gramsci Reading List

A Place for Women in Waipio

Ballotpedia Hawaii

Broken Trust

Build More Hawaiian Homes Working Group

Christian Homeschoolers of Hawaii

Cliff Slater's Second Opinion

DVids Hawaii

FIRE

Fix Oahu!

Frontline: The Fixers

Genetic Literacy Project

Grassroot Institute

Habele.org

Hawaii Aquarium Fish Report

Hawaii Aviation Preservation Society

Hawaii Catholic TV

Hawaii Christian Coalition

Hawaii Cigar Association

Hawaii ConCon Info

Hawaii Debt Clock

Hawaii Defense Foundation

Hawaii Family Forum

Hawaii Farmers and Ranchers United

Hawaii Farmer's Daughter

Hawaii Federalist Society

Hawaii Federation of Republican Women

Hawaii History Blog

Hawaii Homeschool Association

Hawaii Jihadi Trial

Hawaii Legal News

Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance

Hawaii Matters

Hawaii's Partnership for Appropriate & Compassionate Care

Hawaii Public Charter School Network

Hawaii Rifle Association

Hawaii Shippers Council

Hawaii Smokers Alliance

Hawaii State Data Lab

Hawaii Together

HIEC.Coop

HiFiCo

Hiram Fong Papers

Homeschool Legal Defense Hawaii

Honolulu Moms for Liberty

Honolulu Navy League

Honolulu Traffic

House Minority Blog

Imua TMT

Inouye-Kwock, NYT 1992

Inside the Nature Conservancy

Inverse Condemnation

Investigative Project on Terrorism

July 4 in Hawaii

Kakaako Cares

Keep Hawaii's Heroes

Land and Power in Hawaii

Legislative Committee Analysis Tool

Lessons in Firearm Education

Lingle Years

Managed Care Matters -- Hawaii

Malama Pregnancy Center of Maui

MentalIllnessPolicy.org

Military Home Educators' Network Oahu

Missile Defense Advocacy

MIS Veterans Hawaii

NAMI Hawaii

Natatorium.org

National Christian Foundation Hawaii

National Parents Org Hawaii

NFIB Hawaii News

No GMO Means No Aloha

Not Dead Yet, Hawaii

NRA-ILA Hawaii

Oahu Alternative Transport

Obookiah

OHA Lies

Opt Out Today

OurFutureHawaii.com

Patients Rights Council Hawaii

PEACE Hawaii

People vs Machine

Practical Policy Institute of Hawaii

Pritchett Cartoons

Pro-GMO Hawaii

P.U.E.O.

RailRipoff.com

Rental by Owner Awareness Assn

ReRoute the Rail

Research Institute for Hawaii USA

Rick Hamada Show

RJ Rummel

Robotics Organizing Committee

School Choice in Hawaii

SenatorFong.com

Sink the Jones Act

Statehood for Guam

Talking Tax

Tax Foundation of Hawaii

The Real Hanabusa

Time Out Honolulu

Trustee Akina KWO Columns

UCC Truths

US Tax Foundation Hawaii Info

VAREP Honolulu

Waagey.org

West Maui Taxpayers Association

What Natalie Thinks

Whole Life Hawaii

Yes2TMT