Thursday, March 28, 2024
Hawai'i Free Press

Current Articles | Archives

Wednesday, October 19, 2011
New Poll shows Lingle beating Ed Case for Senate
By Selected News Articles @ 5:54 PM :: 5559 Views :: Energy, Environment

HI-Sen. Tightens Up

From Public Policy Polling, October 19, 2011

Linda Lingle's image has rebounded over the last 7 months after she left office unpopular, and it looks like she might be able to make the Hawaii Senate race competitive.

When PPP polled the state in March, shortly after Lingle's second term as Governor ended, only 41% of voters in the state had a favorable opinion of her to 51% with a negative one. Those poor numbers had her running 17 points behind Ed Case and 12 points behind Mazie Hirono in hypothetical head to head match ups.

The passage of time appears to have done Lingle some good though. Her favorability is up 5 points to 46% while her negatives have dropped 8 points to 43%. And with that improvement in her image has come an improvement in her standing against her potential opponents. She now trails Hirono by just 6 points at 48-42, and she actually leads Case by 2 points at 45-43. 

There are 2 things a Republican has to do to win in a state as heavily Democratic as Hawaii: win independents by a wide margin and get a significant amount of crossover support from Democrats. Lingle leads both Case and Hirono by 26 points with independents, so she's getting that done. And she gets 24% of the Democratic vote against Case. But against Hirono she can only get 17% crossover support and she'd need more than that to pull off an upset next November.

Ed Case is significantly more popular (46/30 fav) with Republicans and independents then Mazie Hirono (23/59 fav) is. Usually when that's the case you would expect him to poll better in general election match ups. The problem for Case is that even if Republicans and independents like him more than Hirono, they don't give him any more support against Lingle (he trails 65-20 with those groups) than Hirono (who trails 66-19 with those groups.) They might like him, but it doesn't mean they're voting for him. Meanwhile Hirono is much better liked by Democrats (71/16) than Case is (51/25) so she does a better job of holding onto her base in the head to head with Lingle.

Hirono starts out with a small advantage over Case in the primary, 45-40. Race and ideology are significant dividers. Hirono leads Case 72-20 with voters describing themselves as 'very liberal.' Case has a 45-39 advantage with the folks who fall into any of the other ideological categories but his deficit with folks on the left right now is too much to overcome. Case is up by 23 points with white voters but with the other 2 major ethnic groups in Hawaii he's getting trounced- Hirono is up by 18 with both Asians and native Hawaiians.

We also tested John Carroll, the other Republican candidate in the race, and he shows the extent to which this race being competitive is dependent on Lingle. He trails Case by 39 points at 60-21, and has a 27 point deficit to Hirono at 56-29. Fortunately for the GOP his prospects at winning the nomination look to be close to zero- primary numbers we released yesterday showed him trailing Lingle 85-9.

It's hard to imagine Republicans winning a Senate race in Hawaii with Barack Obama on the ballot. But these numbers make it clear Democrats are going to have to worry about it at least a little bit, just another headache in an election cycle where it will be difficult for them to hold onto their majority in the Senate.

Full results >>> here 

The Hill: Poll: Republican Lingle could win Hawaii Senate race

The poll of 568 voters, including 368 Democrats, was conducted from Oct. 13-16, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent and 5.1 percent in the Democratic primary portion.

Weekly Standard: PPP: Hawaii Senate Race Tightens

The PPP survey shows Lingle competing with both potential Democratic opponents. Congresswoman Mazie Hirono leads Lingle by only six points, and Lingle has the lead over former congressman Ed Case (Akaka's challenger in the 2006 Democratic primary) by two points. That's an improvement for Lingle, PPP says, from a March poll shortly after she left the governorship that showed her 17 points behind Case and 12 points behind Hirono.

The State Column: Poll: Hawaii Senate race increasingly competitive

Politico: Lingle campaign manager supporting Duckworth

Links

TEXT "follow HawaiiFreePress" to 40404

Register to Vote

2aHawaii

808 Silent Majority

Aloha Pregnancy Care Center

AntiPlanner

Antonio Gramsci Reading List

A Place for Women in Waipio

Ballotpedia Hawaii

Broken Trust

Build More Hawaiian Homes Working Group

Christian Homeschoolers of Hawaii

Cliff Slater's Second Opinion

DVids Hawaii

FIRE

Fix Oahu!

Frontline: The Fixers

Genetic Literacy Project

Grassroot Institute

Habele.org

Hawaii Aquarium Fish Report

Hawaii Aviation Preservation Society

Hawaii Catholic TV

Hawaii Christian Coalition

Hawaii Cigar Association

Hawaii ConCon Info

Hawaii Debt Clock

Hawaii Defense Foundation

Hawaii Family Forum

Hawaii Farmers and Ranchers United

Hawaii Farmer's Daughter

Hawaii Federalist Society

Hawaii Federation of Republican Women

Hawaii History Blog

Hawaii Homeschool Association

Hawaii Jihadi Trial

Hawaii Legal News

Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance

Hawaii Matters

Hawaii's Partnership for Appropriate & Compassionate Care

Hawaii Public Charter School Network

Hawaii Rifle Association

Hawaii Shippers Council

Hawaii Smokers Alliance

Hawaii State Data Lab

Hawaii Together

HIEC.Coop

HiFiCo

Hiram Fong Papers

Homeschool Legal Defense Hawaii

Honolulu Moms for Liberty

Honolulu Navy League

Honolulu Traffic

House Minority Blog

Imua TMT

Inouye-Kwock, NYT 1992

Inside the Nature Conservancy

Inverse Condemnation

Investigative Project on Terrorism

July 4 in Hawaii

Kakaako Cares

Keep Hawaii's Heroes

Land and Power in Hawaii

Legislative Committee Analysis Tool

Lessons in Firearm Education

Lingle Years

Managed Care Matters -- Hawaii

Malama Pregnancy Center of Maui

MentalIllnessPolicy.org

Military Home Educators' Network Oahu

Missile Defense Advocacy

MIS Veterans Hawaii

NAMI Hawaii

Natatorium.org

National Christian Foundation Hawaii

National Parents Org Hawaii

NFIB Hawaii News

No GMO Means No Aloha

Not Dead Yet, Hawaii

NRA-ILA Hawaii

Oahu Alternative Transport

Obookiah

OHA Lies

Opt Out Today

OurFutureHawaii.com

Patients Rights Council Hawaii

PEACE Hawaii

People vs Machine

Practical Policy Institute of Hawaii

Pritchett Cartoons

Pro-GMO Hawaii

P.U.E.O.

RailRipoff.com

Rental by Owner Awareness Assn

ReRoute the Rail

Research Institute for Hawaii USA

Rick Hamada Show

RJ Rummel

Robotics Organizing Committee

School Choice in Hawaii

SenatorFong.com

Sink the Jones Act

Statehood for Guam

Talking Tax

Tax Foundation of Hawaii

The Real Hanabusa

Time Out Honolulu

Trustee Akina KWO Columns

UCC Truths

US Tax Foundation Hawaii Info

VAREP Honolulu

Waagey.org

West Maui Taxpayers Association

What Natalie Thinks

Whole Life Hawaii

Yes2TMT