Public Strategy Group, Inc.
• 668 likely Democratic primary voters —Margin of Error +/- 3.8%
• IVR calls placed May 15-16
• Sample weighted based on (a) demographic turn-out model (Sex by Age); (b) frequency of primary voting in last three elections; (c) self-reported likelihood of voting (very likely vs. somewhat likely).
The Democratic primary for United States Senator in Hawaii remains very competitive, with the key match-up question between likely primary voters slightly favoring Case over Hirono within the margin of error. Among the most likely voters, Case enjoys a 46%-45% lead with 9% undecided. His lead increases with larger Democratic primary voter turnout because typically incremental voters in a Democratic primary tend to be more independent and/or moderate groups that strongly identify with Case.
Case, with a strong 65-30 favorable/unfavorable rating, enjoys higher favorable ratings and lower unfavorable ratings than Hirono. His support is also broader; his positive favorability is maintained across all segments while Hirono, although she has pockets of support, slips into net negative among some segments.
Case enjoys narrow leads among both men and women. While Hirono runs stronger among the traditional Democratic base of voters, Case is viewed favorably and is very competitive in that segment, enjoys a substantial lead among self-described moderates and an even greater lead among independent voters. His maintenance of traditional base support and stronger appeal among moderate and independent voters offers a broader Democratic base in the general election.
Most encouraging for Case, among the growing number of voters who say that the most important issue is choosing a candidate who can fix Washington DC, Case leads by 19%. Voters who said the most important issue was the economy and job creation also favored Case by 13%. Respondents also identified Case as the candidate who best knows Hawaii and is most likely to be independent.
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