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Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Hawaii Poll shows Cain beating Romney in GOP Caucus Vote, 88% of GOPers back Lingle
By News Release @ 4:20 AM :: 5494 Views :: Energy, Environment, National News, Ethics

More Good Numbers for Cain

News Release from Public Policy Polling October 18, 2011

Herman Cain's poll momentum is continuing for at least another week. PPP surveys conducted over the weekend in Ohio and Hawaii find him with a large lead in both states. That now makes 7 consecutive polls over the last 3 weeks- a national one and state polls in Ohio, Hawaii, Iowa, North Carolina, Nebraska, and West Virginia- that have found Cain leading the way.

In Ohio Cain's at 34% to 19% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Ron Paul, 6% for Michele Bachmann, 5% for Rick Perry, 1% each for Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum, and 0% for Gary Johnson.

In Hawaii Cain's at 36% to 24% for Romney, 8% for Gingrich and Perry, 6% for Bachmann, 4% for Paul, and 1% each for Huntsman, Johnson, and Santorum. 

Tea Party voters continue to be the primary driver of Cain's momentum. In Ohio he gets 46% of their support to 15% for Gingrich and 11% for Bachmann with Romney finishing all the way back in 4th place at 9%. It's a similar story in Hawaii- there Cain and Romney actually tie at 30% each among non-Tea Party Republicans. But with the Tea Party crowd Cain gets a whooping 52% to 12% for Bachmann and 9% for Romney. These numbers represent a recurring theme in our polls- Romney doesn't necessarily need to win Tea Party voters but he sure needs to not lose them by 40 points if he hopes to win the nomination.

Cain's leads are impressive but they're also soft. In Ohio only 36% of his supporters say they're solidly committed to him and in Hawaii it's only 35%. He's just one misstep away from losing two thirds of his support. That's reflective of the vast uncertainty in the broader race- only 29% of Hawaii Republicans say that they're currently strongly committed to any candidate and in Ohio the figure is just 26%. There's a very wide swath of the GOP base still shopping for a candidate.

The big loser in these polls is Rick Perry. The low numbers of Republicans planning to vote for him is a concern but his even bigger issue is that GOP voters are now saying that they just flat out don't like him. In Ohio his favorability is 40/42 with the primary electorate and in Hawaii it's 36/40. His problem isn't that Republican voters just like someone else better than him- it's that at this point they don't even like him at all. He has some serious image rehabilitation to do to get back in this race.

In addition to Cain the other candidate continuing to show some surprising momentum in Newt Gingrich. He gets a solo third in Ohio and a tie for third in Hawaii, and the numbers in the Buckeye State show the improvement in his image over the last 5 months. When PPP last tested his favorability in May he was at 42/34 with primary voters. Now that's improved to 56/32 and the only Republican with a better net favorability is Cain.

If it came down to just Cain and Romney, Cain would lead 50-36 in Ohio and 49-34 in Hawaii. For now he's in the driver's seat. But we've seen time and again in this GOP race that the driver's seat can be a dangerous place to be.

Full results here

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May, 2011: RESULTS: Cain tops Hawaii GOP Presidential Straw Poll, Hawaii Republican Presidential Vote Set for March 13

Hermentum continues: Cain leads Ohio and Hawaii primaries

News Release from Public Policy Polling October 18, 2011

Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican presidential race is very much nationalized right now, with very few regional or state-by-state differences. Rick Perry is really cratering everywhere, and Herman Cain has led comfortably in every PPP primary poll in the last two weeks, first in rural, right-leaning states like North Carolina, West Virginia, and Nebraska, then Iowa and nationally, and now joined by states as distant and different as Ohio and Hawaii. Mitt Romney’s one true stronghold remains New England. Newt Gingrich is also on the rise, though not to the extent that Cain is.

Perry has never been as low as he is in Ohio, where he has fallen to sixth at 5%, not far above perennial cellar-dwellers Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum (1% each) and Gary Johnson (essentially zero). Cain has 34% to Romney’s 19%, Gingrich’s 14%, Ron Paul’s 7%, and Michele Bachmann’s 6%. This is a drastic change from when PPP last took a look at the contest in August—then, taken the same weekend as his official announcement, Perry led with 21% to Romney’s 20%, Bachmann’s 14%, Cain’s 10%, and Gingrich’s and Paul’s 8%. Perry is down 16 points and Bachmann eight, with Cain up 24 and Gingrich six. Romney remains near the top, but cannot get over the hump yet because the most conservative voters, who are usually 35-45% of the electorate, strongly dislike him and are waffling from one right-wing candidate to another instead of settling on Romney.

In Hawaii, Cain has a 36-24 lead over Romney, with Perry and Gingrich at 8%, Bachmann at 6%, Paul at 4%, and the other three each at 1%. This is one of the more diverse Republican electorates in the country; 44% are something other than white.

That at least two-thirds of these voters say they may change their mind makes the race’s volatility understandable—and gives Romney, Perry, and really anyone else hope that they can quickly make up ground in the months ahead.

PPP surveyed 500 usual Ohio Republican primary voters and 293 Hawaii GOP primary voters from October 13th to 16th. The margin of error for the Ohio survey is +/-4.4%, and +/-5.7% for the Hawaii survey. These polls were not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

---30---

 

 

 

Hawaii Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Michele Bachmann?

Favorable........................................................ 42%

Unfavorable .................................................... 39%

Not sure .......................................................... 19%

 

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Herman Cain?

Favorable........................................................ 65%

Unfavorable .................................................... 15%

Not sure .......................................................... 19%

 

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable........................................................ 53%

Unfavorable .................................................... 35%

Not sure .......................................................... 12%

 

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Ron Paul?

Favorable........................................................ 32%

Unfavorable .................................................... 49%

Not sure .......................................................... 20%

 

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Rick Perry?

Favorable........................................................ 36%

Unfavorable .................................................... 40%

Not sure .......................................................... 24%

 

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mitt Romney?

Favorable........................................................ 55%

Unfavorable .................................................... 29%

Not sure .......................................................... 16%

 

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of John Carroll?

Favorable........................................................ 26%

Unfavorable .................................................... 26%

Not sure .......................................................... 49%

 

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Linda Lingle?

Favorable........................................................ 88%

Unfavorable .................................................... 9%

Not sure .......................................................... 3%

 

Q9 If the Republican candidates for President

were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt

Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron

Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick

Santorum, who would you vote for?

Michele Bachmann ......................................... 6%

Herman Cain................................................... 36%

Newt Gingrich ................................................. 8%

Jon Huntsman................................................. 1%

Gary Johnson ................................................. 1%

Ron Paul ......................................................... 4%

Rick Perry ....................................................... 8%

Mitt Romney.................................................... 24%

Rick Santorum................................................ 1%

Someone else/Not sure .................................. 11%

 

Q10 Would you say you are strongly committed to

that candidate, or might you end up supporting

someone else?

Strongly committed to that candidate.............. 33%

Might end up supporting someone else .......... 67%

 

Q11 Who would be your second choice for

President?

Michele Bachmann ......................................... 6%

Herman Cain................................................... 15%

Newt Gingrich ................................................. 15%

Jon Huntsman................................................. 3%

Gary Johnson ................................................. 1%

Ron Paul ......................................................... 5%

Rick Perry ....................................................... 10%

Mitt Romney.................................................... 12%

Rick Santorum................................................ 1%

Someone else/Not sure .................................. 32%

 

Q12 If the Republican race for President came

down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who

would you vote for?

Mitt Romney.................................................... 49%

Rick Perry ....................................................... 30%

Not sure .......................................................... 21%

 

Q13 If the Republican race for President came

down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who

would you vote for?

Mitt Romney.................................................... 34%

Herman Cain................................................... 49%

Not sure .......................................................... 17%

 

Q14 If the Republican race for President came

down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who

would you vote for?

Herman Cain................................................... 54%

Rick Perry ....................................................... 22%

Not sure .......................................................... 24%

 

Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of

the Tea Party?

Yes.................................................................. 23%

No ................................................................... 65%

Not sure .......................................................... 13%

 

Q16 If the candidates for US Senate were John

Carroll and Linda Lingle, who would you vote

for?

John Carroll .................................................... 9%

Linda Lingle .................................................... 85%

Not sure .......................................................... 6%

 

Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal ...................................................... 2%

Somewhat liberal ............................................ 5%

Moderate......................................................... 21%

Somewhat conservative.................................. 47%

Very conservative ........................................... 25%

 

Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ........................................................... 47%

Man................................................................. 53%

 

Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If native

Hawaiian, press 2. If Asian, press 3. If white,

press 4. If other, press 5.

Hispanic.......................................................... 3%

Native Hawaiian.............................................. 12%

Asian............................................................... 20%

White .............................................................. 56%

Other............................................................... 9%

 

 

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