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Monday, December 12, 2011
Poll of Hard-Core Hawaii Democrats gives Hirono 18-pt Lead over Case
By Selected News Articles @ 2:43 PM :: 5772 Views :: Energy, Environment, National News, Ethics

But Hawaii Primaries are open, not closed, so plenty of non-Democrats can and do vote in the Democratic Primary and yet, oddly, Inouye & the AFL-CIO have been dead set against switching to a closed Democratic Primary ….

Roll Call: Mazie Hirono Poll Shows Wide Lead Over Ed Case in Hawaii

Rep. Mazie Hirono has an 18-point lead over former Rep. Ed Case in Hawaii's Democratic Senate primary, according to an internal poll obtained by Roll Call.

Hirono took 54 percent compared with 36 percent for Case in the poll, which was conducted by Pete Brodnitz of Benenson Strategy Group for the Hirono campaign. By 45 percent to 25 percent, poll respondents said Hirono was the stronger general election candidate. Hirono, who was endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee last week, received higher favorable and lower unfavorable ratings than Case….

The poll of 800 likely primary voters was taken Nov. 15-19 and had a 3.46-point margin of error.

In other words, they only polled hard-core Democrats, not the independents and GOP cross-overs who give Ed Case a chance in the open Democratic Primary. The possibility remains that the hard-core Democrats could still have their preferred candidate overwhelmed by a bunch of outsiders. Too bad they rejected that chance to have a closed primary back when the Democratic State Committee was ready to litigate the issue back in 2006-08….

National Journal Hotline: Hirono Up Big Over Case in Own Poll

Over the summer, Case released an internal poll of his own that irritated national Democrats. That survey, conducted by the Merriman River Group in late July, showed him leading Hirono by 16 points and performing better in a head-to-head matchup against the presumptive Republican nominee, former Gov. Linda Lingle. Case's poll showed Lingle beating Hirono but losing to the former congressman, in separate head-to-head matchups.

In Hirono's poll, respondents were asked the following question: "On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means it applies much more to Hirono and 5 means it applies much more to Case, which candidate would you say this phrase applies to more? Can beat Linda Lingle in the general election."

45 percent said 1 or 2, while just 25 percent said 4 or 5, suggesting stronger support for Hirono against Lingle among Democrats.

Because the poll was of likely Democratic primary voters, there are no head-to-head general election matchup numbers.

Both candidates are well-known by Democrats. Hirono's fav/unfav split in the poll (72/21 percent) was better than Case's (61/28 percent).

Yet, Case could still win. Here the results from a poll where the sample is more than just hard-core Dems—ie is more reflective of who actually votes in the wide-open Hawaii Democratic Primary:

Background on Closed Democratic Primary:

Full Text: Hirono Campaign Handout on Polling Results


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