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Tuesday, May 22, 2012
New Poll: Case 46%, Hirono 45%
By Ed Case @ 4:52 PM :: 4102 Views :: Energy, Environment

From Ed Case Campaign, May 22, 2012

Dear Friend:

Case 46%, Hirono 45%, Undecided 9%.

Those are the results of a statewide poll of likely Democratic primary voters just last week. Here's a
summary of the poll results.

Public Strategy Group, Inc.

Methodology

• 668 likely Democratic primary voters —Margin of Error +/- 3.8%
• IVR calls placed May 15-16
• Sample weighted based on (a) demographic turn-out model (Sex by Age); (b) frequency of primary voting in last three elections; (c) self-reported likelihood of voting (very likely vs. somewhat likely).

Analysis

The Democratic primary for United States Senator in Hawaii remains very competitive, with the key match-up question between likely primary voters slightly favoring Case over Hirono within the margin of error. Among the most likely voters, Case enjoys a 46%-45% lead with 9% undecided. His lead increases with larger Democratic primary voter turnout because typically incremental voters in a Democratic primary tend to be more independent and/or moderate groups that strongly identify with Case.

Case, with a strong 65-30 favorable/unfavorable rating, enjoys higher favorable ratings and lower unfavorable ratings than Hirono. His support is also broader; his positive favorability is maintained across all segments while Hirono, although she has pockets of support, slips into net negative among some segments.

Case enjoys narrow leads among both men and women. While Hirono runs stronger among the traditional Democratic base of voters, Case is viewed favorably and is very competitive in that segment, enjoys a substantial lead among self-described moderates and an even greater lead among independent voters. His maintenance of traditional base support and stronger appeal among moderate and independent voters offers a broader Democratic base in the general election.

Most encouraging for Case, among the growing number of voters who say that the most important issue is choosing a candidate who can fix Washington DC, Case leads by 19%. Voters who said the most important issue was the economy and job creation also favored Case by 13%. Respondents also identified Case as the candidate who best knows Hawaii and is most likely to be independent.

236 Huntington Ave., Suite 404 • Boston, MA 02115 • Tel: (617) 859-3006 • Toll-free Fax: (888) 719-6924 www.publicstategygroup.com

Here's the bottom line: we hold a slight lead with just 82 days left until the August 11th primary election and the trends are in our direction.

We've gotten this far and put ourselves in a position to win both the primary and the general through the dedicated grassroots and financial support of so many. I thank each and all of you personally for your belief in my candidacy and service as your next U. S. Senator, and for doing something about it.

But now it's time to double-down. The weeks ahead will be rough as we face the full brunt of the attacks to come and my opponent hiding behind millions of dollars of slick advertising financed by insider mainland and DC PACs and other special interests.

What will pull us through is our commitment to strong effective leadership to fix DC and our mutual belief in a better Hawai'i and better country over the next generation. That, and doing everything each of us personally can do to demand and achieve it.

E komo mai; join us, today. Mahalo!

Warm aloha,
Ed

Ed Case

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