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Monday, August 23, 2010
Hannemann Campaign: Abercrombie is 2 points ahead
By News Release @ 2:20 PM :: 5208 Views :: Energy, Environment

HANNEMANN CAMPAIGN RELEASES POLL RESULTS

In response to the Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now poll released today, the Hannemann campaign has released the results of a recent poll conducted by QMark Research that shows the race for governor in a statistical dead heat between the two leading Democratic candidates.

The QMark poll shows that if the race was held today it would be 43% for Abercrombie to 41% for Hannemann, a difference of two percentage points, with 16% of the voters still undecided.

In both polls, Neil Abercrombie’s numbers have remained virtually static, while Mufi Hannemann has gained considerable ground – showing the groundswell of momentum building in Hannemann’s favor.

Earlier this month, the Abercrombie camp released the results of their own poll conducted by SMS Research showing them with nearly a double-digit lead.

The QMark Research poll was conducted during the same period as the Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now poll using a sample of 700 voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.70 percentage points and 95% confidence level.

The QMark Research poll results can be found below and a pdf of the report can be found at: http://www.mcneilwilson.com/sites/default/files/QMark_poll_082210.pdf 

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QMark Poll Results

BACKGROUND & METHODOLOGY

A total of 700 registered voters were surveyed beginning on August 6, 2010 and ending on August 15, 2010.  The sample was broken down as follows:

  • Oahu – 400 registered voters
  • Big Island – 100 registered voters
  • Maui – 100 registered voters
  • Kauai – 100 registered voters

Research respondents were quelled from a random sample generated using QMark’s proprietary Random Digit Dialing software.  A sample of this size (n=700) has a margin of error of +/- 3.70 percentage points with a 95% confidence level.

Respondents were screened to ensure they were at least 18 years of age and registered to vote and the residence they were contacted at.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Registered voters who we predict to vote in the upcoming Democratic Primary were asked who they would likely support for Governor if the election were held today.

OVERALL

  • Abercrombie- solid    37%
  • Abercrombie- lean    6%

NET ABERCROMBIE    43%

  • Hannemann- solid    37%
  • Hannemann- lean    4%

NET HANNEMANN    41%

Undecided/ Refused    16%

Our results show that if the race were held during the survey period the two candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for Governor of the State of Hawaii would be in a statistical dead heat.  Currently, 43% say they would vote for or are leaning towards supporting Neil Abercrombie while 41% believe they will likely vote for Mufi Hannemann.  The remaining 16% are undecided at this stage or simply refused to divulge who they intend to vote for.

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