WSJ Political Diary Nov 1 2010 -- Gallup's Advice for Dems: Duck and Cover
How tall will the Republican wave be tomorrow? Two leading political analysts for Gallup have gone through the House races and drawn up what they call the most pessimistic scenario for the GOP. Even so, Republicans end up taking 38 net House seats from Democrats, putting them one seat short of control. Their most optimistic scenario for Republicans is a GOP gain of 90 seats.
Impossible? Seasoned Washingtonians don't think so. For 60 years, Gallup has released an amazingly accurate final pre-election poll showing which party is favored by "likely voters." It has never been in error by more than two percentage points. Last night, Gallup's final survey found Republicans with a 15-point advantage, 55% to 40%.
Gallup analysts Jeffrey Jones and Lydia Saad conclude their pre-election analysis this way: "This year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained."
Democratic consultants have joined the chorus of gloom, perhaps in an attempt to deflect criticism from their own roles in what looks like a debacle. Politico.com last week surveyed nearly a dozen Democratic consultants and strategists, who unanimously predict a GOP House. "Everybody that is tied will lose, and everyone that is ahead by a few points will lose because of the GOP wave," one Democratic media consultant told Politico. "There are going to be some surprises."
-- John Fund, Wall Street Journal
Gallup: Republicans Appear Poised to Win Big on Tuesday