by Andrew Walden

A Star-Bulletin/KITV/Mason-Dixon poll, released January 18 claims to show Republican Lt Governor Duke Aiona lagging 6 points behind Democrat Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann and 9 points behind Democrat US Rep. Neil Abercrombie in hypothetical General Election contests.  But the poll included 486 “likely Democratic primary voters”—61% of the 800 registered voters sampled.  This is 210% of the 29% of registered voters who participated in the 2008 Hawaii Democrat primary and 167% of the 36% of registered voters who participated in the hard-fought 2006 Hawaii Democrat primary. 

A “likely Democratic primary voter” would be a voter who has participated in both recent Democratic primaries.  This would be less than 29% of total Hawaii registered voters.

The first Congressional district responses from the same poll also produced a result reported separately showing Republican Charles Djou trailing Democrats Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa.  But 272 of 403 CD1 respondents—nearly 68%--are identified by the Star-Bulletin as “likely Democratic primary voters” --an even stronger sampling bias than the gubernatorial poll.

The SB poll showed Case beating Djou 52% –21% and Hanabusa beating Djou 43% –36% in hypothetical General Election contests. Tellingly, the SB did not report poll numbers from the three-way Special Election.

The two poll results provide Democrats with the illusion of momentum, a crucial factor in winning independents and undecided votes and in garnering campaign contributions. 

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SB articles . . .

Case holds lead over Hanabusa and Djou >>> LINK

Out Duked: A poll shows the lieutenant governor losing to Democrats for the State’s top job  >>> LINK