Monday, June 17, 2024
Hawai'i Free Press

Current Articles | Archives

Wednesday, October 14, 2020
PBS: Hawaii Absentee Ballot Data Problems
By Selected News Articles @ 12:13 AM :: 2769 Views :: Office of Elections

Projecting Rejected Absentee Ballots in the 2020 General Election

From PBS, October, 2020 (excerpts)

…This November we can expect historic levels of voting by mail. Experts believe at least half of the electorate will vote absentee, millions for the first time. If the rate of rejected mail ballots from 2016 is about the same this time around, the CJI analysis found that more than one million voters are likely to have their ballots tossed out….

We used the only source for national election administration data—the ​Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS)​—from the 2016 general election….

Elections across the U.S. are run on the local-level. The county most commonly runs elections, but in a few states, they are administered on a hyper-local level: by parish, ward or municipality. Wisconsin for example runs elections by ward, and has over 1,800 election offices. For a few states, we chose to aggregate the data up to the county level which provided a more robust sample size and the ability to merge in demographic data. Our final dataset has 3,114 jurisdictions….

When data was still missing and couldn’t be calculated, we first imputed the state-level mean values. The state average was applied to 58 jurisdictions in Texas, 12 jurisdictions in Arkansas, 10 in New Mexico, and one in Hawaii and Maine. If the state had not reported any data (e.g. Alabama did not report the number of rejected absentee ballots), we imputed the national mean….

As reported in the EAVS 2016 report, absentee ballots that arrive late is the most common reason ballots are tossed. A few states however report all missing numbers for the ​“ballot not received on time/missed deadline” including Alabama, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Mississippi, and Rhode Island. We reached out to these states to confirm that they do in fact count a late ballot as rejected, and received confirmation from Alabama, Mississippi and Rhode Island that late ballots are considered rejected. In Illinois some ​jurisdictions​ do classify late ballots as rejected ballots while other ​jurisdictions​ do not—considering them instead as unreturned….

Two states presented data quality issues that led to their exclusion from the analysis. Connecticut and Hawaii both indicate that they transmitted fewer ballots to voters than were submitted. In Connecticut, military and overseas (UOCAVA) voters are counted among ballots that were submitted but not among those that were transmitted. Given the data quality problems and the lack of workarounds to correct them, we decided to exclude both of these states….

Our goal was to estimate the expected number of rejected ballots if more people vote by mail in 2020 than in the 2016 general election. Given the increase in mail balloting in the 2020 primaries, the number of mail ballot requests for November already, and the growing spread of the coronavirus, it’s likely to be the ​case​....

read … Full Report

Related: 2020 Election Could Hinge on Whose Votes Don’t Count


TEXT "follow HawaiiFreePress" to 40404

Register to Vote


Aloha Pregnancy Care Center


Antonio Gramsci Reading List

A Place for Women in Waipio

Ballotpedia Hawaii

Broken Trust

Build More Hawaiian Homes Working Group

Christian Homeschoolers of Hawaii

Cliff Slater's Second Opinion

DVids Hawaii


Fix Oahu!

Frontline: The Fixers

Genetic Literacy Project

Grassroot Institute

Hawaii Aquarium Fish Report

Hawaii Aviation Preservation Society

Hawaii Catholic TV

Hawaii Christian Coalition

Hawaii Cigar Association

Hawaii ConCon Info

Hawaii Debt Clock

Hawaii Defense Foundation

Hawaii Family Forum

Hawaii Farmers and Ranchers United

Hawaii Farmer's Daughter

Hawaii Federation of Republican Women

Hawaii History Blog

Hawaii Jihadi Trial

Hawaii Legal News

Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance

Hawaii Matters

Hawaii Military History

Hawaii's Partnership for Appropriate & Compassionate Care

Hawaii Public Charter School Network

Hawaii Rifle Association

Hawaii Shippers Council

Hawaii Together


Hiram Fong Papers

Homeschool Legal Defense Hawaii

Honolulu Navy League

Honolulu Traffic

House Minority Blog

Imua TMT

Inouye-Kwock, NYT 1992

Inside the Nature Conservancy

Inverse Condemnation

July 4 in Hawaii

Land and Power in Hawaii

Lessons in Firearm Education

Lingle Years

Managed Care Matters -- Hawaii

Missile Defense Advocacy

MIS Veterans Hawaii

NAMI Hawaii

National Parents Org Hawaii

NFIB Hawaii News

NRA-ILA Hawaii


OHA Lies

Opt Out Today

Patients Rights Council Hawaii

Practical Policy Institute of Hawaii

Pritchett Cartoons

Pro-GMO Hawaii

Rental by Owner Awareness Assn

Research Institute for Hawaii USA

Rick Hamada Show

RJ Rummel

School Choice in Hawaii

Talking Tax

Tax Foundation of Hawaii

The Real Hanabusa

Time Out Honolulu

Trustee Akina KWO Columns

West Maui Taxpayers Association

What Natalie Thinks

Whole Life Hawaii