Census Bureau: Hawaii Population Decline 2nd-Fastest in USA
by Andrew Walden
The word is in from the US Census Bureau: Hawaii’s multi-year trend of population loss is continuing unabated.
Based on the ‘Vintage 2025’ U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released January 27, 2026, covering the fiscal year July 2024 to June 2025 (FY2025), only five states are suffering population decline. In the period from the 2020 Census thru FY2025 a slightly different list of five states declined. Hawaii is proportionally second on both lists.
In the last year, 2,123 more people left Hawaii than moved in. This is 0.15% of Hawaii’s population, a loss proportionally second only to Vermont.
In the five years since the 2020 Census, Hawaii has a net loss of 22,447, equal to 1.5% of the population, a loss proportionally second only to New York State. The majority of Native Hawaiians now live outside Hawaii.
In the 2020 Census, Hawaii’s population was 1,455,267. In the newly released estimate for FY2025, Hawaii population is down to 1,432,820.
Foreign immigration to Hawaii dropped from 6,588 in FY2024 to 4,768 in FY2025, possibly reflecting President Trump’s anti-immigration drive. Nationally, population growth dropped from 1% in FY2024 to 0.5% in FY2025, which the Trump Census Bureau is eager to ascribe to reduced immigration.
Young local families dominate Hawaii’s departure statistics. Ali’i trust manipulation of the political and legal systems has driven up the cost of land. As a result, young families are often unable to afford their first home unless they leave. As a result, Hawaii high school graduation classes are projected to shrink 33% by 2041. With many businesses and government departments unable to fill positions, unemployment is at 2.2%.
Those moving in skew towards retirees. As a result, the average family size dropped from 3.40 in the 2020 census, to 2.85 in FY2024, (FY2025 not yet available) and seniors now outnumber minors for the first time. The proportion of the population under age 18 dropped from 20.85% in the 2020 Census to 20.3% in FY2024. The percentage over age 65 rose from 19.9% to 21.5%.
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