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Monday, August 8, 2011
Iowa Caucus: Bachmann, Romney and Paul on Top
By News Release @ 2:47 PM :: 3982 Views :: National News, Ethics

From Rasmussen Reports, August 8, 2011

In the Iowa caucus race for the Republican presidential nomination, five candidates are in double digits, and many voters are open to changing their mind before caucus day arrives.

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Iowa’s Likely Caucus Participants shows that Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann attracts 22% support, while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney earn 21%. Just slightly behind is Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 16%, followed by Texas Governor Rick Perry at 12% and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty at 11%.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich picks up five percent (5%) of the vote, businessman Herman Cain wins four percent (4%), and former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman is at two percent (2%). Seven percent (7%) would prefer some other candidate. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Nationally, Romney, Perry, and Bachmann lead the pack.

Overall, just 28% of potential Iowa Caucus participants are absolutely certain of how they will vote, while the rest could change their mind. Among those who are certain of their vote, Ron Paul is on top at 27%.

Fox News and the Washington Examiner will sponsor a GOP debate this Thursday night. On Saturday, the Iowa State Fair straw poll will be held. While that straw poll is not terribly predictive, it does offer lesser known candidates an opportunity to gain some traction. Four years ago, Mike Huckabee’s performance in the straw poll gave him the chance to become a top-tier candidate.

The survey of 627 Likely Iowa Republican Caucus Participants was conducted on August 4, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Just 49% of Paul’s supporters would vote for the Republican nominee if their man does not win the nomination. That’s well below the total for other candidates. Fifteen percent (15%) of Paul’s supporters would vote for President Obama over another Republican, and 22% would go the third party route. It’s important to remember that part of the congressman’s appeal is from his anti-war position which earns him support from many Democrats.

Overall, just 23% of likely caucus participants believe that Republicans in Congress have done a good job representing GOP values in recent years, while 67% believe their representatives have lost touch with the party base.

Bachmann is the most popular candidate among potential caucus-goers. Seventy percent (70%) have a favorable opinion of her, including 37% with a Very Favorable opinion. No other candidate in the field earns Very Favorable reviews from more than 20%.

Romney earns favorable reviews from 62%, Pawlenty from 61%, Paul from 58% and Perry from 50%. Perry is the least well-known of the GOP candidates, with 19% who have no opinion of him one way or the other.

Cain is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 36%. For Huntsman, the numbers are 26% favorable and 49% unfavorable.

The least popular candidate is Gingrich. Just 33% offer a positive assessment of the former House speaker, while 62% voice a negative opinion.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of the likely caucus participants consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement. Among these voters, Bachmann leads. Among those not part of the movement, Romney leads.

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