Forecasting weather five days out is an iffy business at best, but Windy.com models show Lowell barelling down on Kauai as a hurricane the night of Monday, September 7, and crossing the Garden Isle during the day Tuesday, September 8, 2026.
The path is similar to that taken by Iniki, September 11, 1992.
INIKI 1992
According to NOAA:
- 'Hurricane' = wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH.
- 'Major Hurricane' = wind speed greater than 110 MPH.
NOAA cone models differ, showing Lowell as a 'Major Hurricane' far SW of Kauai as of 8am Monday September 7, below.
NOAA BULLETIN
Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026
...LOWELL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 154.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lowell was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 154.3 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h)
with higher gusts. Lowell is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and it is expected to remain
a major hurricane for the next several days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb (27.38 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lowell are spreading northward and will
affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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