From Public Policy Polling, October 20, 2011
Barack Obama doesn't need to worry about winning Hawaii next year. He's more popular there than anywhere else in the country and he has huge leads over all of his potential Republican opponents. But even his native state shows the difficulties Obama's facing right now- his approval numbers are way down from earlier in the year and his margins for reelection against the various GOP candidates don't come close to what he won by in 2008.
Obama's Hawaii approval rating is 56% with 36% of voters disapproving of him. That +20 spread is down 15 points from when we polled the state in March when he was at +35 (64/29.) Obama's numbers with Democrats now are basically identical to what they were earlier in the year. But where he previously had an unusual amount of crossover popularity with Republicans at 27% approval, that's now down to 15%. And he's gone from having very strong numbers with independents at 58/33 to relatively poor ones at 41/45.
For all that Obama's still more popular in Hawaii than he is anywhere else we've polled this year- California, Vermont, and Rhode Island where he's at 53% come the closest, although we haven't polled Illinois.
Mitt Romney comes the closest to Obama in the state but still trails by 27 points at 59-32. Even in a deep blue state like Hawaii you can see the considerable electability difference between Romney and anyone else in the Republican field. Herman Cain and Ron Paul do next best, each trailing by 33, at 63-30 and 61-28 respectively. Rick Perry trails by 35 at 63-28, Michele Bachmann's down 36 at 64-28, and Newt Gingrich has a 37 point deficit at 64-27.
Obama won Hawaii by 45 points in 2008, 72-27, so his numbers are down no matter who his Republican opponent is.
We also looked into the 'birther' issue in Hawaii- 83% of voters there think Obama was born in the United States to only 10% who disagree. But among Republicans there's still a significant 30% who question the legitimacy of Obama's citizenship compared to 54% who think he was indeed born in the country. Clearly there's a segment of the GOP with whom this theory will probably never die.
Full results here
Related: Hawaii Republican Presidential Vote Set for March 13