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Thursday, July 26, 2012
Star-Adv Poll Debunked: 20% Extra Democrats
By News Release @ 11:41 AM :: 9219 Views :: Energy, Environment

Good morning and aloha,    July 26, 2012 

As Governor Lingle mentioned yesterday, our campaign team and our nationally-recognized pollster have been going through the poll results released by the Honolulu Star-Advertiser this morning. Because you are the heart and soul of this campaign, we want you to know the facts about this poll and the reality of this important election.

First things first: Even in this skewed poll, we are on a clear path to victory, showing great gains with Independent voters!

Overall, you should know that this poll is not representative of Hawaii's historical voting patterns.  Our national pollster has pointed out that in examining the exit polling from past years' elections (in 2006, 2008 and 2010), voters in Hawaii typically self-identify themselves as Democrats 42% of the time.  Yet, despite these clear demographic figures, the Ward Research polling firm - who conducted the Star-Advertiser's poll - continues to conduct their polls using 62% identified Democrats.  Their poll only includes 19% Independents and only 18% Republicans.

With this poll heavily skewed toward the hard-core Democrats, it is difficult to take the Star-Advertiser poll results seriously as they simply don't match up with real-life elections and they are not consistent with the recently reported polls from multiple national polling firms in recent weeks.  As Governor mentioned, in two unrelated polls conducted earlier this month with likely voters in the state, she is leading the race by five and six points respectively.

As Hawaii's voters continue to move toward the center, the polling data on the Independent voters is the most significant portion of this poll.  Even though Ward Research only uses 19% Independents, Governor Lingle is winning that portion of the electorate by 60%-34%. These figures indicate that Governor Lingle's message of bipartisanship is resonating with the voters who will make a difference in this campaign: the moderates.

While we are pleased with this clear advantage with independent voters, we don't believe that the overall results of this poll make sense, and they certainly aren't reflecting what's happening on the ground.

When we entered this race in October of last year, we knew this would not be an easy battle. And, believe me, this race will continue to get more challenging.

More than ever, we need you to increase your efforts to continue making the difference in this campaign.  Visit the headquarters on your island, volunteer to make phone calls to supporters, come join our team for sign-waving, and most importantly, talk to your 'ohana, friends and neighbors: Let them know that with your help we will win this race.


Bob Lee

Campaign Manager

Linda Lingle Senate Committee

* * * * *

Case Mocks Ward Poll: ‘Light Years Off’

SA: Case said the Hawaii Poll is "light-years off" his recent internal poll, a Lingle internal poll and an automated telephone survey conducted by the online news service Civil Beat and Merriman River Group, which all have the primary essentially tied. He also cited a Ward Research poll in the primary for governor in 2002 that had Hirono over Case by 20 points. Hirono defeated Case by about 1 point….

…retired Maj. Gen. Robert G.F. Lee, Lingle's campaign manager, said it is difficult to take the Hawaii Poll seriously because he believes it included too many voters — 62 percent — who said they usually vote Democratic. He said the number of independent voters should have been higher, given exit poll data from recent elections.

"As Hawaii's voters continue to move toward the center, the polling data on the independent voters is the most significant portion of this poll," he said in an email. "Even though Ward Research only uses 19 percent independents, Gov. Lingle is winning that portion of the electorate with a 26 percent margin. These figures indicate that Gov. Lingle's message of bipartisanship is resonating with the voters who will make a difference in this campaign: the moderates."

Ward said the poll's sample reflected Hawaii's history as a Democratic state. Many voters who describe themselves as independents in other surveys, for example, often vote Democratic. "This to me is consistent with everything we've known to be true about Hawaii politics," she said.

NOTE: On Aug 11 Ward Research’s poll will be debunked. Will it for Rebecca Ward or the Star-Advertiser change “everything we've known to be true about Hawaii politics." No. Ward is all about creating a message and a false sense of inevitability, not about reporting public opinion. What about the Star-Adv Editors? What are THEY all about?

read … Case Mocks Ward

  *   *   *   *   *

From the Desk of Linda Lingle

Email to Supporters of Lingle Senate Campaign July 25, 2012

I am writing you personally to give you advance notice of a poll that will be released tomorrow by the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. The poll results they will announce simply are not consistent with recent polling conducted by reputable, independent sources across the country and don't match up with past, real-life election demographics.

Tomorrow morning's newspaper will likely feature a headline that says I am trailing in the race for Hawaii's open U.S. Senate seat. However, over the past 10 months of this campaign, I have continued to steadily climb in the variety of polls conducted statewide. Most recently, in two unrelated polls conducted earlier this month with likely voters in the state, I was shown as leading the race by five and six points respectively.

It is clear that the Star-Advertiser figures are far from reality. I have visited with all of you statewide, in your homes and your businesses, and it is your unwavering support that drives my efforts. Despite tomorrow's headline, I continue to remain confident that we have a clear path to victory in this election. Our polling results - which have been validated by independent, national polls - are a more accurate reflection of the sentiment we are experiencing on the ground.

Stay tuned for more details tomorrow morning from General Bob Lee, my campaign manager. He and our nationally-recognized pollster are pouring over the complete poll results now and will give you a detailed review in the morning.

Mahalo nui loa for your continued support. It is your enduring confidence that will lead us to victory!



P.S. Please pass this on to your ohana, friends and neighbors. These sensational headlines and the skewed data behind them will not distract us on our path to victory in 103 days.


Star-Adv: Full Results of Ward Research Rent-a-Poll

Star-Adv: Coverage



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