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Saturday, June 20, 2009
Poll shows Abercrombie leads Hawaii Governors' Race
By Selected News Articles @ 8:09 AM :: 12303 Views :: Energy, Environment


1) This poll is sponsored by Daily KOS obviously with the intent of interesting early-money Democrat donors in the race.

2) KOS interest in this race hints at a Democrat "netroots" bias in favor of Abercrombie over Hannemann.

3) Read the internals: Lingle has only 51% favorable rating with poll respondents--this hints that the poll sampling produced slanted results since Lingle's approval ratings have been substantially higher (70%+) in other polls. 

4) Republicans will have to answer with a poll of their own.

by Rachel Kapochunas CQ Politics

Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie holds a comfortable early lead in in the race for the party's nomination in Hawaii's 2010 governor's contest, according to a new poll, but his margin is smaller in a general election-matchup.

A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll conducted June 15 to June 17 showed Abercrombie leading Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann in a Democratic primary match up of likely voters 42 to 22 percent, but 36 percent of voters were undecided. The poll's margin of error is 4 percentage points.

Current Republican Gov. Linda Lingle, a moderate who defied the state's Democratic trend by winning her first election in 2002 and re-election in 2006, will be term-limited in 2010.

The poll showed Abercrombie's general election race could be more competitive than the state's typically Democratic lean would suggest. Abercrombie, who is serving his 10th full term in office, led Republican Lieutenant Gov. James "Duke" Aiona 45 to 36 percent with 19 percent undecided in a hypothetical general election match-up.

Hannemann fared nearly as well as Abercrombie when Hannemann was pitted against Aiona. Results of a general election match-up showed Hanneman with 44 percent, Aiona received 34 percent and 22 percent remained undecided.

But much time remains until the Sept. 18, 2010 primary.

Democrats are eager to take back the governor's mansion in Hawaii. If Democrats were to win the governor's race as well as the open seat race to succeed Abercrombie in his Democratic-leaning 1st District, Democrats would then hold all of the state's U.S. House seats, its two U.S. Senate seats, as well as majorities in the state legislature.

Abercrombie said he hopes to build on the Democratic momentum Honolulu-born president Barack Obama brought to the state last year during the presidential campaign. The state supported Obama with 72 percent of the vote to 27 percent for Republican John McCain.

CQ Politics rates the general election race Democrat Favored.


Daily Kos/Research 2000 Hawaii Poll

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
6/15-17/09; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
400 Democratic primary voters, 5% margin or error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

Pres. Barack Obama: 68 / 26
Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D): 55 / 33
Mufi Hannemann (D): 56 / 20
Duke Aiona (R): 44 / 26
Sen. Daniel Inouye (D): 56 / 38
Gov. Linda Lingle (R): 51 / 43

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
Abercrombie 42%,Hannemann 22%

2010 Governor: General Election
Abercrombie 45%, Aiona 36%
Hannamann 44%, Aiona 34%

2010 Senate: General Election
Inouye 52%, Lingle 40%

GO to source for complete poll details 


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