Thursday, June 13, 2024
Hawai'i Free Press

Current Articles | Archives

Thursday, January 10, 2013
PEW: Vote-by-Mail Favors Old White Democrats
By Selected News Articles @ 6:59 PM :: 6051 Views :: Office of Elections

How Does Vote By Mail Affect Voters?

A natural experiment examining individual-level turnout

by Elizabeth Bergman, CSU East Bay, Philip Yates, Cal State Pomona, Elaine Ginnold, Registrar of Voters Marin County, Ca -- A Project Sponsored by the Pew Charitable Trusts Pew Center on the States

In California’s last election on May 19, 2009, a record 62.19% of voters in the state cast their ballots by mail. Across the nation, twenty-four states allow No Excuse Absentee Voting. Voters appear to be latching on to the relaxation of laws giving them access to the new mode of voting.

However, it is important to note that in all but two states, voting by mail is optional. As much as officials and proponents of the change to all-mail elections would like to use the high participation rate of vote by mail as positive indicators regarding a mode change, the reality is that these data are based on self-selected behavior. In other words, a majority of California voters chose to cast their ballot by mail.

What would happen if voting by mail became compulsory? What would happen to the 37.81% who expressed no desire for voting by mail when they are required to change over to a new system? We answer that question in this paper.

In this study we take advantage of a natural experiment following the same voters to ascertain the individual-level effects on turnout when voters are assigned to mandatory mail-ballot precincts. In analyzing the behavior of 97,381 individual voters across four recent elections in California we find that:

When a mandatory vote-by-mail system is implemented, the estimated odds of an individual voter voting decreases by 13.2%.

Communicating with voters about mandatory vote-by-mail matters a great deal and can eventually overcome the negative effect of being forced to vote by mail. This occurs when at least 4 pieces of communication are sent out by elections officials.

Across voter stratifications, being forced to vote by mail has negative effects on the turnout of urban and minority (Hispanic and Asian) populations. For a mail ballot precinct and fixed election characteristics, the estimated odds of voting decreases:

  • 50% for urban voters;
  • 30.3% for Asian voters;
  • 27.3% for Hispanic voters

Party effects show Democratic voter odds increase 5.99% over Republicans.

Age estimated odds of voting increase 3.80% for each additional year a voter ages.

read … The Entire Report



TEXT "follow HawaiiFreePress" to 40404

Register to Vote


Aloha Pregnancy Care Center


Antonio Gramsci Reading List

A Place for Women in Waipio

Ballotpedia Hawaii

Broken Trust

Build More Hawaiian Homes Working Group

Christian Homeschoolers of Hawaii

Cliff Slater's Second Opinion

DVids Hawaii


Fix Oahu!

Frontline: The Fixers

Genetic Literacy Project

Grassroot Institute

Hawaii Aquarium Fish Report

Hawaii Aviation Preservation Society

Hawaii Catholic TV

Hawaii Christian Coalition

Hawaii Cigar Association

Hawaii ConCon Info

Hawaii Debt Clock

Hawaii Defense Foundation

Hawaii Family Forum

Hawaii Farmers and Ranchers United

Hawaii Farmer's Daughter

Hawaii Federation of Republican Women

Hawaii History Blog

Hawaii Jihadi Trial

Hawaii Legal News

Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance

Hawaii Matters

Hawaii Military History

Hawaii's Partnership for Appropriate & Compassionate Care

Hawaii Public Charter School Network

Hawaii Rifle Association

Hawaii Shippers Council

Hawaii Together


Hiram Fong Papers

Homeschool Legal Defense Hawaii

Honolulu Navy League

Honolulu Traffic

House Minority Blog

Imua TMT

Inouye-Kwock, NYT 1992

Inside the Nature Conservancy

Inverse Condemnation

July 4 in Hawaii

Land and Power in Hawaii

Lessons in Firearm Education

Lingle Years

Managed Care Matters -- Hawaii

Missile Defense Advocacy

MIS Veterans Hawaii

NAMI Hawaii

National Parents Org Hawaii

NFIB Hawaii News

NRA-ILA Hawaii


OHA Lies

Opt Out Today

Patients Rights Council Hawaii

Practical Policy Institute of Hawaii

Pritchett Cartoons

Pro-GMO Hawaii

Rental by Owner Awareness Assn

Research Institute for Hawaii USA

Rick Hamada Show

RJ Rummel

School Choice in Hawaii

Talking Tax

Tax Foundation of Hawaii

The Real Hanabusa

Time Out Honolulu

Trustee Akina KWO Columns

West Maui Taxpayers Association

What Natalie Thinks

Whole Life Hawaii