Monday, December 2, 2024
Hawai'i Free Press

Current Articles | Archives

Friday, May 14, 2010
CQ: Democrats May Get the Blues in Hawaii
By Selected News Articles @ 2:55 AM :: 10727 Views :: Maui County, Education K-12, Energy, Environment, National News, Ethics

By Shira Toeplitz, CQ-Roll Call

The special election in Hawaii’s 1st district could bring more bad news for Democrats, handing them a significant defeat in President Obama’s birthplace and upending the political climate there in a way no one envisioned mere months ago.

Given the tenor of recent events, CQ Politics is changing its assessment of the race to Leans Republican. A confluence of unique circumstances could give Republicans the upper hand after the mail-in ballots are counted on May 22. Two strong Democrats are splitting the vote in this winner-takes-all contest and the national party failed to put a dent in the campaign of Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R).

When Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie left the House in February to pursue a bid for governor, that might have been gutsy call for a district that gave Obama 70 percent of the vote. But the most recent public polls have shown Djou in the lead and the GOP’s advantage solidified when the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced Monday it would stop spending in the race.

While Democratic spendng came to a halt, Republican lawmakers and GOP-aligned interest groups have sent tens of thousands of dollars to Djou’s campaign, including a total of $106,000 donated by 51 House Republicans. That sum accounts for nearly a tenth of the $1.2 million Djou has raised for the race, according to Federal Election Commission records.

There are more reasons why Djou could capture the seat by a plurality of votes.

Most importantly, the Democratic intraparty fight escalated to a point of no return. For weeks, the two leading Democrats – state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa and former Rep. Ed Case – were locked in a dead heat with Djou. But neither candidate has been willing to bow out. The national party has not publicly endorsed a candidate but believes Case has a better chance of winning. The White House this week leaked an internal memorandum by pollster Paul Harstad concluding that the seat is “more likely than not to fall into Republican hands” and that Case is “the only candidate” who can beat Djou.

After the White House memo leaked the memo and a poll last week said Case was the party’s best chance for winning the seat, Hanabusa announced May 5 she was staying in the race anyway.

Second, Djou has more money to spend in the final days of this election. According to finance reports turned in on May 2, Djou reported $363,000 cash on hand, while Case had $154,000 and Hanabusa had $187,000 in the bank.

Additionally, turnout has been high in the district with about 30 percent of ballots already turned in to the state elections office. According to an automated telephone survey taken May 6 and 7, 53 percent of voters had already mailed in their ballots and 45 percent of those folks reported they voted for Djou.

---30---

LINK>>>discussion

Links

TEXT "follow HawaiiFreePress" to 40404

Register to Vote

2aHawaii

Aloha Pregnancy Care Center

AntiPlanner

Antonio Gramsci Reading List

A Place for Women in Waipio

Ballotpedia Hawaii

Broken Trust

Build More Hawaiian Homes Working Group

Christian Homeschoolers of Hawaii

Cliff Slater's Second Opinion

DVids Hawaii

FIRE

Fix Oahu!

Frontline: The Fixers

Genetic Literacy Project

Grassroot Institute

Habele.org

Hawaii Aquarium Fish Report

Hawaii Aviation Preservation Society

Hawaii Catholic TV

Hawaii Christian Coalition

Hawaii Cigar Association

Hawaii ConCon Info

Hawaii Debt Clock

Hawaii Defense Foundation

Hawaii Family Forum

Hawaii Farmers and Ranchers United

Hawaii Farmer's Daughter

Hawaii Federation of Republican Women

Hawaii History Blog

Hawaii Jihadi Trial

Hawaii Legal News

Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance

Hawaii Matters

Hawaii Military History

Hawaii's Partnership for Appropriate & Compassionate Care

Hawaii Public Charter School Network

Hawaii Rifle Association

Hawaii Shippers Council

Hawaii Together

HiFiCo

Hiram Fong Papers

Homeschool Legal Defense Hawaii

Honolulu Navy League

Honolulu Traffic

House Minority Blog

Imua TMT

Inouye-Kwock, NYT 1992

Inside the Nature Conservancy

Inverse Condemnation

July 4 in Hawaii

Land and Power in Hawaii

Lessons in Firearm Education

Lingle Years

Managed Care Matters -- Hawaii

MentalIllnessPolicy.org

Missile Defense Advocacy

MIS Veterans Hawaii

NAMI Hawaii

Natatorium.org

National Parents Org Hawaii

NFIB Hawaii News

NRA-ILA Hawaii

Obookiah

OHA Lies

Opt Out Today

Patients Rights Council Hawaii

Practical Policy Institute of Hawaii

Pritchett Cartoons

Pro-GMO Hawaii

RailRipoff.com

Rental by Owner Awareness Assn

Research Institute for Hawaii USA

Rick Hamada Show

RJ Rummel

School Choice in Hawaii

SenatorFong.com

Talking Tax

Tax Foundation of Hawaii

The Real Hanabusa

Time Out Honolulu

Trustee Akina KWO Columns

Waagey.org

West Maui Taxpayers Association

What Natalie Thinks

Whole Life Hawaii