Sunday, April 14, 2024
Hawai'i Free Press

Current Articles | Archives

Monday, November 21, 2011
New rules turn GOP race from sprint into marathon, early nominee unlikely
By Selected News Articles @ 6:06 PM :: 6994 Views :: Energy, Environment, National News, Ethics

New rules turn GOP race from sprint into marathon: Unlike ‘08, early nominee unlikely

by Ralph Z. Hallow, The Washington Times

This time, Republicans may have to wait till spring — or later — to learn who in their party will challenge President Obama next fall.

In 2008, the GOP presidential nomination battle was effectively over by February, when the revived campaign of Sen. John McCain triumphed over the moneyed war machine of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

But a quick knockout may not be in the cards this time.

Many of the states that jumped to the front of the Republican primary calendar in January and February have had their delegate totals to the nominating convention docked by party officials.

In addition, the 2012 version of Super Tuesday falls on March 6, a month and a day later than its 2008 counterpart. New York and California, both of which held primaries on 2008’s Super Tuesday, won’t weigh in on this cycle until April 24 and June 5, respectively.

With a primary calendar and nominating process that makes it tougher to amass quickly the delegates needed to clinch the nomination, “this year’s schedule will make our nominating process more of a marathon than 2008’s sprint,” said former Hawaii Republican Party Chairman Willes Lee.

Even apart from the structural issues created by the calendar, some Republican analysts also are predicting a long, drawn-out primary based on the specifics of the 2012 candidate field. The poll numbers have shown considerable fluidity, months before Iowa’s first-in-the-nation contest on Jan. 3. There is not a clear, well-liked front-runner, and all of the major candidates have obvious shortcomings and are polling poorly in at least one early state.

“The diverse field, drawn-out process and big differences between the candidate leanings of voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina likely mean the nomination won’t be resolved quickly this time around,” said California GOP Chairman Tom Del Beccaro.

Craig Shirley, head of the Washington-based Shirley and Banister Public Affairs and author of biographies of Ronald Reagan, agreed. He called the 2012 nomination race “probably the most wide open since 1940, when Wendell Willkie came out nowhere to seize the chance to challenge the incumbent, Franklin Delano Roosevelt.”

Mr. Shirley and GOP strategists cite the fact that virtually all the top-tier candidates — Mr. Romney, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, businessman Herman Cain and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich — have records that are at least somewhat problematic for conservatives, making it harder for the party base to coalesce quickly around an early consensus choice.

Hawaii’s Mr. Lee noted that a long, drawn-out race has become more plausible because of actions by a number of state parties — including in Florida, Arizona and Michigan — to ignore Republican National Committee guidelines and move up their primary dates to early in 2012 in hopes of playing a kingmaker role earlier in the nomination fight.

But jumping the gun will cost them half their regular delegate numbers — and make it harder for a hot candidate to run up the delegate count and drive others from the field, as Mr. McCain did in 2008.

RNC rules also call for subsequent primary and caucus states after the first wave of states to divide their delegates among the candidates instead of adopting the winner-take-all format that Republicans historically have favored.

As a result, it is mathematically impossible for any candidate to accumulate the requisite 1,142 delegates for nomination before March 24, even if that candidate won every vote in every contest from Iowa onward. Unless one candidate emerges to score an early knockout, the earliest practical date anyone can reach the magic number is well into April and possibly later.

read … The Washington Times


HFP: Hawaii Republican Presidential Vote Set for March 13


TEXT "follow HawaiiFreePress" to 40404

Register to Vote


808 Silent Majority

Aloha Pregnancy Care Center


Antonio Gramsci Reading List

A Place for Women in Waipio

Ballotpedia Hawaii

Broken Trust

Build More Hawaiian Homes Working Group

Christian Homeschoolers of Hawaii

Cliff Slater's Second Opinion

DVids Hawaii


Fix Oahu!

Frontline: The Fixers

Genetic Literacy Project

Grassroot Institute

Hawaii Aquarium Fish Report

Hawaii Aviation Preservation Society

Hawaii Catholic TV

Hawaii Christian Coalition

Hawaii Cigar Association

Hawaii ConCon Info

Hawaii Debt Clock

Hawaii Defense Foundation

Hawaii Family Forum

Hawaii Farmers and Ranchers United

Hawaii Farmer's Daughter

Hawaii Federalist Society

Hawaii Federation of Republican Women

Hawaii History Blog

Hawaii Homeschool Association

Hawaii Jihadi Trial

Hawaii Legal News

Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance

Hawaii Matters

Hawaii's Partnership for Appropriate & Compassionate Care

Hawaii Public Charter School Network

Hawaii Rifle Association

Hawaii Shippers Council

Hawaii Smokers Alliance

Hawaii State Data Lab

Hawaii Together



Hiram Fong Papers

Homeschool Legal Defense Hawaii

Honolulu Moms for Liberty

Honolulu Navy League

Honolulu Traffic

House Minority Blog

Imua TMT

Inouye-Kwock, NYT 1992

Inside the Nature Conservancy

Inverse Condemnation

Investigative Project on Terrorism

July 4 in Hawaii

Kakaako Cares

Keep Hawaii's Heroes

Land and Power in Hawaii

Legislative Committee Analysis Tool

Lessons in Firearm Education

Lingle Years

Managed Care Matters -- Hawaii

Malama Pregnancy Center of Maui

Military Home Educators' Network Oahu

Missile Defense Advocacy

MIS Veterans Hawaii

NAMI Hawaii

National Christian Foundation Hawaii

National Parents Org Hawaii

NFIB Hawaii News

No GMO Means No Aloha

Not Dead Yet, Hawaii

NRA-ILA Hawaii

Oahu Alternative Transport


OHA Lies

Opt Out Today

Patients Rights Council Hawaii

PEACE Hawaii

People vs Machine

Practical Policy Institute of Hawaii

Pritchett Cartoons

Pro-GMO Hawaii


Rental by Owner Awareness Assn

ReRoute the Rail

Research Institute for Hawaii USA

Rick Hamada Show

RJ Rummel

Robotics Organizing Committee

School Choice in Hawaii

Sink the Jones Act

Statehood for Guam

Talking Tax

Tax Foundation of Hawaii

The Real Hanabusa

Time Out Honolulu

Trustee Akina KWO Columns

UCC Truths

US Tax Foundation Hawaii Info

VAREP Honolulu

West Maui Taxpayers Association

What Natalie Thinks

Whole Life Hawaii